"Not Yet Negative Enough": Goldman's Risk Gauge Breaks Below Zero, But Contrarian Buy Signal Is Still A Long Way Off

Forget diversification. There is now only one trade.

Last week Goldman's cross-asset Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) slid to -0.5, its lowest level since April 2025, i.e. the Liberation Day tariff crash. But the more interesting part of the bank's latest GOAL Kickstart note (available to pro subs) is why it fell: according to Goldman's portfolio strategists, the correlation between the RAI and the Nasdaq 100's performance against the equal-weight S&P 500 has climbed to almost 1 in recent weeks.

Below Zero, But Not Low Enough