When Does The Credit Party End? Goldman, Morgan Stanley Map The AI Debt Binge As The Edges Start To Crack

Strip away the token math, the GW counts and the ROIC slide decks, and the AI trade comes down to one simple chain: no debt, no capex; no capex, no AI growth; no AI growth, no record S&P EPS. Which is why the funding of the AI buildout has quietly become the most important topic in capital markets, why we have spent so much time discussing the credit support behind the AI supercycle (now that debt is projected to fund between a third and half of future AI capex), and why the only question that really matters for the rest of 2026 is when the credit party ends.

The answer, judging by three notes that landed on our desk over the past few days, is that it already has... just not where most people are looking.

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