$200 Oil, $155,000 Gold And Other Not-So-Impossible Scenarios

What a week. Between growing questions about the financial viability of the AI boom, the possibility of an even more severe global oil shock, a Federal Reserve that has now missed its inflation target for 66 consecutive months, and the increasingly absurd disconnect between Wall Street’s celebration and the economic reality facing ordinary Americans, there was no shortage of things to pontificate about.

On Friday morning I published an article on one hated sector in the market that is becoming very interesting to me heading into 2027:

Hated In 2026, But Worth Watching In 2027

And then there’s the financial reality of the AI boom…which may finally be catching up with the market’s euphoric expectations. With OpenAI’s revenue reportedly running $20 billion below expectations, Wall Street has spent years pricing in an almost flawless future for AI. The question now is what happens when investors begin demanding evidence that the economics actually work.

The AI Rally Trapdoor Just Swung Open Violently

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Most investors are still treating the energy crisis as something that can eventually be managed or contained. But what happens if they’re wrong? I walk through a scenario in which oil reaches $150 or even $200 per barrel, exploring the consequences for inflation, consumers, corporate margins and global economic growth.

What If The Oil Crisis Gets Much, Much Worse?

On the anniversary of Hamas’s October 7 massacre, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani chose to make a political statement that I found deeply inappropriate for the occasion. I examine his rhetoric, the demonstrations in New York where Hamas flags appeared, and what I see as a disturbing failure of political leadership.

Zohran Mamdani's Disgraceful October 7th

For all the Federal Reserve’s speeches, projections and assurances about its commitment to price stability, inflation has now remained above its 2% target for 66 consecutive months.

The Fed Has Missed Its Inflation Target 66 Months In A Row

And Fringe Finance favorite Cathie Wood recently faced a pointed question about ARK Invest’s long-term performance relative to the Nasdaq 100, and her response was a remarkable exercise in moving the goalposts. I examine her claim that the QQQ is an inappropriate benchmark for ARK and explain why I believe Wood is largely a product of the extraordinary monetary conditions of the last fifteen years.

The Art Of Explaining Away Underperformance

I also joined Tony Greer on his Macro Dirt podcast for a wide-ranging conversation about markets, monetary policy and the economic reckoning I believe is coming. We discussed my background on Wall Street, the absurdities of Modern Monetary Theory, the growing risks in the bond market, and what a potential bond market bailout might look like. We also spent considerable time discussing wealth inequality, shrinkflation and the increasingly brutal economic conditions facing middle- and lower-income Americans, even as financial markets continue celebrating.

Tony Greer And I Discuss The Reckoning Ahead

Finally, I’ve written extensively about America’s widening wealth gap, but the latest data suggest something even more extraordinary is happening. This is no longer simply a story about the wealthy getting richer while everyone else struggles. The top 0.1% are now pulling away from even the rest of the wealthy at an astonishing pace. I examine the numbers, the monetary policies that have helped produce this outcome, and why I believe this accelerating concentration of wealth is creating the conditions for a potentially historic economic and social reckoning.

The Nerve Center Of Our Economic “Matrix” Revealed

The common thread running through nearly everything I wrote this week is simple: financial markets are pricing in a version of reality that looks increasingly disconnected from what’s happening underneath the surface.

Here’s what else is new on the blog:

Whether it’s AI valuations, the bond market, energy prices, inflation or the extraordinary concentration of wealth, I continue to believe the imbalances building across the economy are far more serious than the market’s day-to-day price action would suggest.

As always, thank you for reading, subscribing and supporting my work. I appreciate everyone who takes the time to read, comment and share these pieces.

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and very often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning, meaning if I’m long I could sell or if I’m short I could cover at any time. Positions can change immediately. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning.

I also may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and own things I’m bearish on. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

I cannot guarantee the accuracy of any or all facts and figures included in this article though I made an effort to get them right. I have been wrong before and will be wrong again, and encourage you to always double check, do your own research and speak to a licensed financial professional, which I am not.

Contributor posts, guest posts and curated posts have been hand selected by me, but have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author or reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

Since 2026, I have been making an attempt to no longer actively trade as much as I once did (read my story here). In an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from most fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

My goal is for my investing/saving to be done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything, at any point.

You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. Again, I get shit wrong a lot, both in the market and in life, but am trying my best. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier. Hence, I am a writer. I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. Many times I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Thanks, you’ve been a great crowd and don’t forget to tip your servers.

Contributor posts published on Zero Hedge do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Zero Hedge, and are not selected, edited or screened by Zero Hedge editors.

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