Anthropic and OpenAI Slowdown

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Anthropic and OpenAI are the primary anchor tenants for most AI data centers, given their massive compute requirements. So, any scrutiny of their business models disrupts valuations across the entire AI ecosystem.

Last week, we discussed OpenAI’s apparent $20B revenue shortfall. Although viewed as an accounting artifact, it nevertheless forced investors to question future revenue assumptions.

On Wednesday, Anthropic released its pre-IPO revenue figures. Calculations reveal the company is unlikely to hit its previously touted targets as growth decelerates rapidly.

The main issue is falling token prices, even as token usage keeps rising. It’s no wonder; models are commoditized and competition intensifies across the board from Google, Meta, xAI, and Chinese open-source.

When revenue growth slows for anchor tenants like Anthropic and OpenAI, the entire infrastructure buildout is jeopardized. From neo-clouds and hyperscalers renting capacity, to the chipmakers supplying the hardware, and private credit lenders financing the expansion, the entire chain relies on continued growth of these two frontier labs to justify capital expenditures.

And speaking of commoditized models, over the weekend, DeepSeek released another update to its model. Expect more volatility in the space...

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