"Long-Term Constructive, Just Not Today": Goldman Cuts Gold Target Again As Warsh Kills The "Debasement" Trade (For Now)

In January, Goldman's gold call was all about "sticky hedges". Ten months later, the hedges have come unstuck.

In a note published Thursday evening titled, appropriately enough, "Long-Term Constructive Gold, But Just Not Today" (available to pro subs), Goldman's commodity team led by Lina Thomas lowered the bank's end-2026 gold forecast to $4,150/toz (from $4,650) and its end-2027 forecast to $4,800/toz (from $5,400), blaming the Fed's hawkish shift in recent months and what it means for investor positioning. With spot gold trading around $4,130 on Thursday morning, Goldman's new year-end target implies, well, roughly nothing over the next eight weeks.