To hold or not to hold

Mighty 200 day

SPX dipped below the 200 day moving average, but we are now above it again. Note the big trend line coming in around these levels...

Source: Refinitiv

Bitcoin and NASDAQ

We have not seen NASDAQ move lower with BTC exploding to the upside in a long time.

Source: Refinitiv

They are short

CTAs are running equity shorts, global as well as US.

Source: GS

Source: GS

Are you...

...more likely to increase or decrease equity exposure over the coming days/weeks? JPM's latest client survey shows the crowd as the most excited in a long time.

Source: JPM

Fading M7

Fading “magnificent 7” impact: rolling 3-month contribution of “magnificent 7” to overall S&P 500 performance.

Source: Soc Gen

Bonds above 5%

Equities tend to sell off with bonds when interest rates rise beyond 5%.

Source: Goldman

The big bond buy

Convexity over the 1 month scenario is to the upside...and it is huge.

Source: GS/TME

Markets imply a higher right-tail risk for Gold

However, the right tail for gold still looks thinner than in the first weeks of the Russian invasion of Ukraine - the latest large spike in geopolitical risk.

Source: Goldman

Gold - beyond fear

Gold and VIX have moved in tandem since things kicked off earlier this month. Obviously, there is a mean reverting logic to VIX, but note that gold is refusing to participate in accompanying VIX moving lower.

Source: Refinitiv

Defense on the rise

Not only are interest payments rising, lately we have seen a pick up in spending on defense.

Source: TS Lombard

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