Philly Fed Tumbles In December Back Near 2019 Lows

The "trough is in" narrative takes another hit this morning as the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey notably disappointed in December, tumbling from 10.4 to 0.3 (well below expectations of +8.0).

This is near the lowest levels for 2019...

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, the picture is more mixed...

  • Dec. prices paid rose to 19.0 vs 7.8

  • New orders rose to 9.4 vs 8.4

  • Employment fell to 17.8 vs 21.5

  • Shipments rose to 15.9 vs 9.8

  • Delivery time rose to 10.6 vs 8.5

  • Inventories rose to 6.1 vs -4.6

  • Prices received fell to 11.9 vs 12.2

  • Unfilled orders rose to 10.4 vs 6.0

  • Average workweek rose to 7.7 vs 5.2

And while the six-month outlook fell to 35.2 (from 35.8), the only silver lining is that the six-month outlook for capex rose to 27.6 (from 19.4).