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Doug O’Laughlin of SemiAnalysis: on chip manufacturing insta-experts, H100 depreciation, and what a real AI bust would look like

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McElligott's Thoughts On The Doomsday Scenario

Another shock to global energy would then see the potential flip towards renewed concerns around a “Global Growth Shock” and likely sees Low Strike Receivers / Receiver Spreads / Curve Caps go “bid” as market turns it’s focus to the cut cycle into this "hard stop"

BoJ lifts rates by 25bps, but Ueda strikes a dovish tone, leading to JPY pressure; US equity futures are firmer - Newsquawk US Market Open

  • The BoJ hiked rates by 25bps to 1.25%, as expected, with the decision made by a 7-2 vote.
  • In the press conference, BoJ Governor Ueda said the BoJ believes the phase of policy has changed but clarified that the objective is now to stabilise underlying inflation at around 2%.
  • US equity futures are mixed, with outperformance in tech as gains extend following Nvidia's Huang comments of doubling chip sales in 2027.
  • DXY is slightly firmer; JPY the clear laggard as 2 dissenters give the BoJ a dovish tilt.

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