- Death toll climbs to 170 from 132, with 7,711 cases confirmed in China and 7,814 worldwide, while the number of suspected cases has soared by 2,928 to 12,167 from 9,239 yesterday
- Reporter claims local media has evidence Beijing lying about death toll
- British Airways cancels flights to China
- Trump says he spoke with Xi over the phone
- Angry mobs spotted in Sichuan
- CDC sending representatives to China
- 3 Japanese aboard evac flight test positive for coronavirus
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China's NHC just released another up . China now admits to 7,771 cases across the country, Adding nearly 1,800 from 5,974 yesterday. The death toll has climbed to 170, and 170 patients have been cured. Some 31 cases were labeled "severe" and nearly 82,000 are under observation. What is perhaps most shocking is that the number of suspected cases soared by nearly 3,000 overnight from 9,239 to 12,167.
In another major development, state media reports that the first case of coronavirus has been confirmed in Tibet. It was the only region in China with zero confirmed cases, though that streak is now over.
In a disturbing development, three of the Japanese citizens rescued from Wuhan aboard Japan's evac flight Wednesday have tested positive for cornavirus - so now the Japanese government is essentially importing the virus on the evacuation flight. We hope all those on the flight will be quarantined for a while given the virus's reputation of spreading asymptomatically.
Here's a breakdown of all the revisions...
- Confirmed cases +29% (from 5974 to 7711)
- Suspected cases +32% (from: 9239 to 12167)
- Severe cases +10% (from 1239 to 1370)
- Death toll +29% (from 232 to 170
...and here's a copy of the announcement from China's National Health Office, translated into English via Google:
At 04:00 on January 29, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 1737 new confirmed cases (the first confirmed case in Tibet), 131 new severe cases, and 38 new deaths. (37 cases in Hubei and 1 in Sichuan), 21 new cases were cured and discharged, and 4148 suspected cases were added.
As of 24:00 on January 29, the National Health and Health Commission has received a cumulative report of 7711 confirmed cases, 31 cases of severe cases, 170 death cases, and a total of 170 patients who have been cured and discharged. There were 124 cases with 12,167 suspected cases.
At present, 88,693 close contacts have been tracked. Of the 2,364 people who were released from medical observation on the same day, a total of 81,947 people are receiving medical observation.
A total of 25 confirmed cases were reported in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan: 10 in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, 7 in the Macao Special Administrative Region, and 8 in Taiwan.
And the updated chart...
In other news, as economists worry about the blowback to China's already slowing economy, Peter Navarro said late Wednesday that the Trump administration will keep its tariffs in place no matter what happens with the outbreak.
That's probably why there have been so many rumors about the fraught relationship between Trump and Xi, and reports that Trump never actually spoke with the Chinese leader after claiming that they had discussed the outbreak.
Once again, we'd like to point out that we're ahead of this supposedly "alarmist" and "fearmongering" model (h/t @abuforlife1):
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Update (1720ET): The government in Hubei has announced another slate of cases and deaths.
- CHINA'S HUBEI REPORTS 37 ADDITIONAL DEATHS FROM CORONAVIRUS
- CHINA CORONAVIRUS DEATH TOLL RISES TO AT LEAST 169
- CHINA'S HUBEI REPORTS 1,032 MORE CORONAVIRUS CASES FOR JAN. 29
Meanwhile, 26,632 people are still undergoing medical observation, and another 4,334 cases are still being treated in the hospital. The CDC has just confirmed that it's sending representatives to China to help suppress the outbreak.
House lawmakers were told today that the CDC is traveling to China to cooperate on Wuhan virus control— Erik Wasson (@elwasson) January 29, 2020
Just look at that slope.
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Update (1650ET): Several epidemiologists have suggested that many of the deaths caused by the coronavirus that surfaced in Wuhan last month have probably 'slipped through the cracks' - either having been misdiagnosed or deliberately attributed to something else. Many suspect that Beijing is concealing the true extent of the outbreak. And now, one reporter claims that a Chinese media organization has found proof.
The East Asia Correspondent for DW cited reports in a tweet claiming that health officials have been secretly moving some bodies directly from the hospital to the crematorium.
Also, one thing that #China is hiding is the number of death caused by the virus. Credible Chinese media outlet @initiumnews interviewed people working at local cremation centers, confirming that many dead bodies were sent directly from the hospitals to the cremation centers...— William Yang (@WilliamYang120) January 29, 2020
... without properly identifying these patients, which means there are patients who died from the virus but not adding to the official record. That shows the current death toll of 133 that we are seeing is way too low.— William Yang (@WilliamYang120) January 29, 2020
So there are reasons to remain skeptical about what #Chins has been sharing with the world because while they have been more transparent about certain things related to the virus, they continue to be sketchy and unreliable in other aspects.— William Yang (@WilliamYang120) January 29, 2020
Meanwhile, research published in the Lancet, a medical journal, claimed the true mortality rate is closer to 11% (the official rate is 2%-3%).
The latest clinical report on 2019-nCoV: 99 patients from Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital. Important: a key group of patients progress rapidly to ARDS, septic shock, and multiple organ failure. 23% ITU admission, 17% ARDS, 11% mortality. https://t.co/Hr0XIfK6M1— richard horton (@richardhorton1) January 29, 2020
If they're lying about the death toll, then it's likely they also know the true number of infections is much higher than the 'official' number. .
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Update (1345ET): Russia is the latest country to partially restrict travel with China. Russian Newswire Interfax reports that Russia has ordered the closure of some of its rail links with its close geopolitical ally. Restrictions will begin as of Jan. 31.
Though the number of cases outside China is climbing only slowly, the number is still climbing. There are now seven confirmed cases in Australia: four in NSW, two in Victoria and one in Queensland. In Europe, France has confirmed its fifth case.
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Update (1150ET): During a press conference to commemorate the signing of his USMCA trade agreement, President Trump mentioned for the first time that he had spoken directly with President Xi about the coronavirus outbreak.
"We’re very much involved with them right now on the virus that’s going around. We’re working very closely. I spoke with President Xi."
The president tweeted earlier this week that the US was in very close communication with China over the outbreak, and offered any assistance necessary.
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Update (1130ET): The Global Times has confirmed another death, bringing the death toll to 133, and another ~30 cases have been confirmed on the mainland.
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Update (0950ET): Germany's Lufthansa and American Airlines are the latest airlines to suspend flights to China. American is cancelling flights from LAX to Shanghai and Beijing beginning Feb. 9 through late March. Other airlines that have cancelled some or all flights to China since earlier this morning include Air Canada, Lion Air, Seoul Air and a handful of others around the world.
Asiana Airlines Jeju Air Jin Air Co Finnair Oyj Lion Air Jetstar Airways’ Singapore Ops and Air Macau have also cancelled flights.
Representatives for Lufthansa are reportedly denying reports that it plans to suspend flights. It seems only time will tell. BBC reports that Britons who have been evacuated from Wuhan will be kept in quarantine for two weeks. Japan and the US have also evacuated citizens from Wuhan via chartered plane. Australia and New Zealand are also planning evacuations.
Mark Woolhouse, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, told the AP the UK's steps are justified.
"There’s always a balance between the draconian measures of public health and what people might want to do, and obviously it’s regrettable if people who turn out not to have the virus are quarantined unnecessarily," he said.
We're still waiting on confirmation regarding whether the White House will ban flights into and out of China. And just like that, an already dismal outlook for the airline industry is getting worse.
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Update (0910ET): You had to know it was coming.
As more local governments on the mainland (including Beijing and Wuhan) mandate that facemasks be worn at all times, price gouging throughout Asia and even in certain parts of the US has become extremely common. Locals say Chinese everywhere are snapping up masks and mailing them to family in the mianland.
Of course, stores around China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau can't get their hands on more facemasks fast enough (Japan is reportedly preparing a shipment to assist the Chinese government). As a result, lines outside shops and factories are growing to a staggering degree.
One line outside a factory in in Changhua City reportedly stretched for more than a kilometer (0.62 miles).
【抢购口罩 台湾彰化工厂排长龙】— 自由亚洲电台 (@RFA_Chinese) January 29, 2020
Lines were everywhere across China - Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau - as well as Australia, New Zealand and the US.
One video from Sichuan depicts an angry mob crowding the home of a family that allegedly ignored a case of the virus, allowing it to spread. The scene was reminiscent of something out of 'Lord of the Flies', a book that we imagine is probably banned in China.
In Hong Kong, where SARS killed roughly 300 people back in 2003, public-transit workers are threatening to strike if the city government doesn't widen its closures.
【港铁新工会促港铁要求政府封关】— 自由亚洲电台 (@RFA_Chinese) January 29, 2020
The New York Times Beijing bureau chief shared photos from across China and Hong Kong, depicting empty public transit stations and barren streets.
Temperature check stations are set up at the exits of every train along with a computer that my be screening people’s ID card origins. They didn’t screen me, but then I got checked as I left the station and again at a toll. First thing cabbie asked me: “where you coming in from?” pic.twitter.com/zweFKAFePS— Paul Mozur 孟建国 (@paulmozur) January 29, 2020
And streets are pretty empty in Guangzhou too. Apparently most shops closed, more so than simply for CNY. The approach seems to be put up checkpoints absolutely everywhere to scan temperatures. Luckily everyone has contactless thermometers. pic.twitter.com/xgHcoQKKD1— Paul Mozur 孟建国 (@paulmozur) January 29, 2020
In other news, after the White House denied weighing a complete shutdown of all passenger air traffic between the US and China, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has confirmed that a complete ban is, in fact, one of several options being considered.
Different governments have been throwing out estimates for the timeline of developing a usable vaccine for the virus. According to CNBC, the latest estimate comes from Swiss drug giant Novartis, which said finding a vaccine will take "over a year" - much longer than the timeline for developing a vaccine for SARS, 17 years ago. But clearly, the market isn't worried, even as SocGen recommended to clients that they wait until the virus situation has "stabilized" before taking on more risk.
Back in China, health officials in Guangdong confirmed that two Australians and one Pakistan student have contracted the virus - making them the first confirmed foreigners to contract the virus in China. Another report claims four other Pakistanis have been diagnosed in Wuhan.
In the UK, a gathering of regional leaders from the UK and China that was set to take place in Birmingham in February has been cancelled, according to the SCMP. Following British Airways decision to close all flights to China, Germany's Focus Magazine has reported that Lufthansa plans to follow suit.
A few more cases have been confirmed, as the global total approaches 6,200.
More cases are gradually being announced as airlines and governments around the world tighten travel restrictions in response to the virus. The WHO is expected to hold a press conference shortly.
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Update (1925ET): Though it still far outpaced all of its western rivals, China's annual GDP growth rate decelerated to its slowest level in 29 years last year, a factor, economists said, of the destabilizing trade war with the US.
Now, a senior economist with the Chinese government in Beijng is warning that annualized GDP growth for 2020 could dip below 5% if the virus isn't contained. This is based on an assumption that the virus will peak before March.
- CHINA GOVT ECONOMIST ESTIMATES THAT IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON CHINA'S ECONOMY COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY BIGGER THAN THAT OF SARS OUTBREAK
- CHINA GOVT ECONOMIST SAYS BEIJING LIKELY TO STEP UP POLICY SUPPORT FOR ECONOMY, WHICH COULD BOOST BUDGET DEFICIT TO OVER 3% OF GDP IN 2020
- CHINA Q1 GROWTH MAY DIP BELOW 5% AS VIRUS SPREADS - GOVT ECONOMIST
- CHINA GOVT ECONOMIST SAYS FORECAST BASED ON ASSUMPTION THAT VIRUS OUTBREAK WILL PEAK BY MID-FEBRUARY AND END BY END OF MARCH
Remember: China's econ data is notoriously unreliable. When they announce 7% growth, skeptics claim the reality is closer to 4%. A break below 5% could, in reality, be a break below 3%.
Such an announcement is hardly a surprise...
In 2019, China's slowdown was blamed on trade war— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 21, 2020
In 2020, it will be blamed on a virus https://t.co/9HIar0GYuk
...but Beijing's promise to "step up policy support for the economy" means China will embark on another round of massive fiscal stimulus (at a time when economists have been begging Germany to consider loosening its purse strings to revive a sluggish Europe).
* * *
As the Trump Administration denies plans to shut down all passenger air traffic to China, more airlines around the world are suspending routes, a sign that the coronavirus outbreak could do permanent damage to the industry.
Just hours after the UK Foreign Office warned Britons against traveling to China, British Airways, Britain's flag carrier, and its second-largest airline in the UK. British Airways operates direct flights from Heathrow to Beijing and Shanghai, but right now, passengers can't book flights on those lines until Feb. 29. CNN called it "the most drastic action yet by a major airline" in response to the crisis. The decision comes after United Airlines said it would temporarily reduce the number of flights between the US and China.
"We have suspended all flights to and from mainland China with immediate effect following advice from the Foreign Office against all but essential travel," British Airways said in a statement Wednesday.
This comes after United said Tuesday that it had seen a "significant decline in demand" and been forced it to suspend flights from Feb. 1 through Feb. 8 between its US hubs and Beijing, Hong Kong and Shanghai. In total, 24 round trips have been impacted between Hong Kong to San Francisco and Newark; Beijing to Dulles, O'Hare and Newark; and Shanghai to San Francisco, Newark and O'Hare.
Some airlines have cancelled flights as far out as March.
American Airlines, Delta and United all extended change fee waivers through the end of February, while Hong Kong flagship carrier Cathay Pacific said it will reduce the capacity of flights to and from mainland China by half or more until the end of March.
Finland's Finnair is canceling three weekly flights between Helsinki and Beijing between Feb. 5 and March 29, and two weekly flights between Helsinki and Nanjing between Feb. 8 and March 29, because of the suspension of group travel by Chinese authorities. It will continue to operate flights to Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Guangzhou.
There are now 5,974 cases in China, with 1,239 of whom are severely ill, according to state media on Wednesday. Initial theories, put forward by some infectious disease experts, that the mortality rate of the virus is much lower than reflected in press reports because thousands with mild cases are likely toughing it out in their homes. If anything, it looks like the virus is more lethal than we previously believed.
And it's certainly more infectious.
Per the SCMP, a 48-hour span of no new nCoV infections came to an end Wednesday when Hong Kong authorities announced two more patients tested positive for the potentially deadly illness, bringing the local total to 10, as the HK government suspends high-speed rail travel between the Special Administrative Region and the mainland. The HK Department of Health said the two new patients, an elderly couple, aged 72 and 73, tested positive at Queen Mary Hospital in Pok Fu Lam, and, because of their age, fall into the high-risk category of infections. More than 100 people are still in isolation in HK.
The situation is growing increasingly worrisome in Guangdong province, which is centered around the city of Guangzhou, the fifth-largest in China.
Guangzhou is at the center of a massive conurbation stretching out all the way to Shenzen, and to the other neighboring cities of Foshan, Dongguan, Zhongshan and several other neighboring provinces. This agglomeration is one of the largest of its kind on Earth, home to more than 100 million. City officials announced five new infections, two locals and three foreigners. With more than 270 confirmed cases, this well-connected and economically important province is behind only Hubei and Zhejiang in terms of number of cases.
Now that several countries have copies of the coronavirus genome, the race for a workable vaccine is intensifying. Russia joined that race on Wednesday after receiving a copy of the virus genome from China, Russian state media reported on Wednesday. The US said on Tuesday that it would take three months to start initial trials for a vaccine that it's developing, and three further months to gather data.
In Hong Kong, infectious diseases expert Professor Yuen Kwok-yung said on Tuesday that the city’s researchers had stumbled on a vaccine, but that it would take months to test on animals and at least another year to conduct trials on humans before it could be confirmed ready for human use. Scientists in Melbourne said they grew the virus from a patient sample, which could prove a "game-changer" in combating the outbreak. It was the first time the virus had been grown in a cell culture outside China (here's hoping it isn't misused as a potential bioweapon).
The Hong Kong high-speed rail link to China is well and truly a ghost station. Normally crowded facilities were surreally empty. I have a whole train car to myself. HK government is closing the station at midnight. pic.twitter.com/YfEx6ZB0U1— Paul Mozur 孟建国 (@paulmozur) January 29, 2020
After confirming the first case of human-to-human transmission in Japan, health officials in Tokyo have shared more information about the case with the press: The man did not travel to Wuhan but drove buses with tour groups from the city twice this month. The man is in his 60s and lives in Nara Prefecture, according to the Japan Times.
Overnight, the first case of the virus in the Middle East have been confirmed in the United Arab Emirates, according to the country’s Ministry of Health and Community Protection. The 4 infected patients are members of a family that had traveled from Wuhan. In its statement, the health ministry reported the family as being in a stable condition under medical observation, according to CNBC.
As hysteria surrounding the outbreak grows, SCMP reports that resentment toward people from Wuhan is growing across China, as provincial authorities ramp up screenings of those from Wuhan, and citizens build unauthorized roadblocks to keep strangers out of their towns.
Meanwhile, President Xi said Wednesday that "preventing and containing the virus remains a severe and complex task," a follow up to his claims that China would do whatever is necessary to contain the "demon" virus.