PremiumMarkets Face 'Points Of Fragility'; BCA Warns Japan Remains An Underestimated Risk
Authored by Dhaval Joshi via BCA Research,
2025 Key Views Update
Our hypothesis that tech stock valuation downside and yen upside are exposed to a normalisation of the Japanese real bond yield is yet to be fully tested. On a medium-term horizon, this is an underestimated risk that justifies overweighting the yen and underweighting overvalued tech.
A supply-constrained US labour market is preventing a sharp rise in unemployment but steering the US economy into a ‘mini stagflation’.
Chinese government bond yields have a lot further to fall.
New tactical trades: Long JPY/EUR, short platinum.