"A Good Weekend For Russia"
Russia Advances In Donbass As Aid Remains Tied Up In U.S.
As Zero Hedge readers read this morning, neocons were freaking out over the weekend at news that Tucker Carlson is in Moscow, where he may interview Russian President Vladimir Putin. As Swedish military analyst Mikael Valtersson points out below, the media is only one of three fronts in which Russia had success over the weekend. Following Valtersson's post (which refers to his map above), we'll offer an additional comment, and then close with a brief market update.
Authored by Mikael Valtersson on X
Good Weekend For Russia, Feb 5 2024
SHORT ANALYSIS: GOOD WEEKEND FOR RUSSIA, FEB 5 2024 It's very late, but a quick analysis of the weekend. Russia scored four significant victories this weekend. Two military one political and one in media.
The surprisingly fast Russian advance in northern Avdiivka city made the fall of Avdiivka a sure thing. It will be almost impossible for UkrAF to take back lost territory and that will leave an operationally encircled city counting down its fall.
Further north another thing became clear. RuAF are now so close to Zherebets river that they have fire control over the few landpassages over Zherebets in the area. It is also almost impossible for Ukrainian units to make counterattacks. This will also lead to a Ukrainian withdrawal (map) to the West Bank of the Zherebets.
In the political sphere the Republican Bill in Congress to support only Israel, and not both Israel and Ukraine, is a great success for Russia. It increases division within the US and gives nothing to Ukraine?
Finally we have Tucker Carlson's visit to Russia, which will be a huge PR success for Russia and give Russia an opportunity to reach western audiences and explain the Russian position on international conflicts.
All in all a very good Russian weekend.
An Additional Comment
On the military front, one advantage for Russia in Adviika seems to have been its greater supply of glide bombs this time around, as our friend Sergei Witte notes below.
The availability of Moskal-JDAMs has changed the coefficient of urban combat in Russia’s favor. Gives a cost effective way to attack hard points and urban blocks that was missing during the battle for Bakhmut. https://t.co/USeWEBNBLQ
— Big Serge ☦️🇺🇸🇷🇺 (@witte_sergei) February 5, 2024
This is due in part to greater military production, which has been reflected in recent economic stats, where Russia's economy has been outpacing those of the West.
If you’d said this is where we’d be in 2024 back in March 2022 you’d have been laughed at and probably called names. Yet here we are. Are we allowed have a serious conversation about the utility of sanctions yet? 🇷🇺 pic.twitter.com/llMfXo9sdG
— Philip Pilkington (@philippilk) February 3, 2024
That ties in with Tucker Carlson's visit to Moscow. Even if he doesn't get an interview with Putin, Tucker is likely to report what he sees there, and what he's going to see is a city that looks like it's doing well economically (on top of being cleaner and safer than American cities like New York or Los Angeles).
Regarding the third front Valtersson mentions, the battle for Ukraine aid in the U.S. Congress, the latest iteration of that is the border bill which combines Ukraine and Israel aid, which Zero Hedge has rightly characterized as "scandalous" as it still allows 1.5 illegal alien entries per year, while shoveling billions of dollars to the NGOs that finance this invasion.
Let's wrap this up on a positive note with a brief market update.
Market Update: Estée Lauder Rips Higher
In our trade alert on Friday, we wrote:
Note: we’ve had five profitable exits on earnings trades so far this week, ranging from 14% to 127%, (a sixth trade looks like it’s going to be a loss). The one below has metrics closest to that of our triple-digit gainer from this week. Hopefully it performs similarly.
That "one below" was Estée Lauder (EL 1.57%↑), which spiked today on its earnings beat and job cuts news, and we just exited our trade on it for a 138% gain.
We have another trade teed up on a similar stock today; if you'd like a heads up when we place it, feel free to subscribe to our trading Substack/occasional email list below.
If You Want To Stay In Touch
You can scan for optimal hedges for individual securities, find our current top ten names, and create hedged portfolios on our website. You can also follow Portfolio Armor on Twitter here, or become a free subscriber to our trading Substack using the link below (we're using that for our occasional emails now).
