ADP Prints At 157K On Expectations Of 70K, Up From 36K In May

ADP has released a June private payrolls number of 157K, far above expectations of 70K, and up from a downward revised 36K previously. From the release: "Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector rose 157,000 from May to June on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report released today. The estimated advance in employment from April to May was revised down, but only slightly, to 36,000 from the initially reported 38,000. Today’s ADP National Employment Report estimates employment in the service-providing sector rose by 130,000 in June, nearly three times faster than in May, marking 18 consecutive months of employment gains. Employment in the goods-producing sector rose 27,000 in June, more than reversing the decline of 10,000 in May. Manufacturing employment rose 24,000 in June, which has seen growth in seven of the past eight months." Yet despite a supposed pick up in marginally weak employment sectors, both construction and financial jobs dropped once again in June, declining by 4,000 and 3,000, respectively. The one hopeful sign is that the bulk of hiring supposedly occured at small businesses (under 500 workers): "Employment among large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, increased by 10,000, while employment among medium-size businesses, defined as those with between 50 and 499 workers, increased by 59,000. Employment for small businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, rose 88,000 in June"  ADP concludes: "These figures are above the consensus forecast for today’s report and for Friday’s jobs  number from the BLS. Payroll employment growth at this pace usually implies a steady unemployment rate, perhaps even a modest decline." The only question now is whether we are back to the old regime when the ADP consistently beats NFP numbers and has absolutely no correlation with what the BLS reports.

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