CEBM Warns China Exports And Imports To Decelerate In Q3 And Onward

As if one needed additional fears about the Chinese bubble popping, with overnight reports that various Chinese provinces are rising minimum wages to quell social unrest, following last night's surprising decline in the China PMI, here comes CEBM with a very scary outlook on China trade in general, and exports in particular. Well, if nothing else it will sure help the US push its world's worst trade deficit a little higher now that it will have much less to import. From the report: "Our CEBM China export leading indicator has already peaked, indicating that China’s exports are likely to peak soon. Our export model suggests that China’s exports may decelerate from 3Q due to weakening domestic and foreign demand." And here are some bad news for Obama's plan to double US exports in the next 5 years: "As the government has unofficially adopted normalization strategy away from the stimulus we are likely to see property, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments lose steam in the second half. The deceleration of FAI may put downward pressure on China’s imports." Have no fear - with its record budget spending, NASA will soon discover intelligent and wealth life on Mars, which will be more than glad to import all of America's financial innovation and three other things we export.

Full report.


CEBM China Daily 2010-07-01-Macro