The latest from our friends over at Realpont (nothing good):
In September 2009, the delinquent unpaid balance for CMBS increased to $31.73 billion from $28.16 billion a month prior. Such delinquent unpaid balance is up an astounding 583% from one-year ago (when only $4.64 billion of delinquent balance was reported for September 2008), and is now over 1 14 times the low point of $2.21 billion in March 2007. An increase in four of five delinquent loan categories was noted in September, with a slight decline experienced in the REO bucket (reflected in the increased liquidations for September). Despite such decline, the distressed 90+-day, Foreclosure and REO categories grew in aggregate for the 22nd straight month – up by $1.48 billion (8%) from the previous month and over $16.65 billion (547%) in the past year (up from only $3.044 billion in September 2008).
And here is what a recoveryless, and soon to be crashful recovery looks like:
The resultant delinquency ratio for September 2009 of 3.94% (up from the 3.347% reported one month prior) is now over seven times the 0.54% reported one-year prior in September 2008 and almost 14 times the Realpoint recorded low point of 0.283% from June 2007. The increase in both delinquent unpaid balance and ratio over this time horizon reflects a steady increase from historic lows in mid-2007.
Much more in the original research report from Realpoint.