Current Rally In Equities Mirror Image of February-April 2010 Rally Which Ended In Collapse

We continue to believe we are trading in extremely similar fashion to the Feb-April 2010 rally (strong support at 10-day EMA on S&P, depressed VIX, high levels of complacency, widespread overowned sectors, extreme bullishness, etc) which of course ended in a violent sell-off, and as noted yesterday we believe we are now trading at the equivalent of the April 20, 2010 point where equities are rebounding a bit off their first test of the 20-day EMA following an initial break below the 10-day EMA (see charts below). We believe like April 2010 any rebound at current levels should be used to initiate short positions/unwind long positions as equities will likely retest the 20-day EMA here shortly, and culminate in a major breakdown below all major support levels. Expect like April 2010, S&P is being forced to overshoot in preparation for deluge of negative May 2010, trigger for slide was Euro crater triggered by mounting European sovereign debt concerns, expect this collapse may be triggered by USD collapse on US muni bond concerns (note significant USD weakness over past several sessions). Lastly note just under 12,000, DJIA trading at top of right shoulder of 25-year head & shoulders.