Durable Goods Revised To Even Worse October Print

Last week's advance durable goods report, which everyone promptly forgot about because it showed, gasp, bad data, just got even worse. Today, the final revision of the durable goods number was released, showing an even greater drop in durable goods orders. To wit: instead of a -3.3% decline, the final number in durable goods ended up being -3.4%: "New orders for manufactured durable goods in October, down two of the last three months, decreased $6.9 billion or 3.4 percent to $195.7 billion, revised from the previously published 3.3 percent decrease. This followed a 4.9 percent September increase." And as expected the artificial inventory led "bounce" refuses to relent: "Inventories of manufactured durable goods in October, up ten consecutive months, increased $1.5 billion or 0.5 percent to $316.9 billion, revised from the previously published 0.4 percent increase. This followed a 0.7 percent September increase." In other words: fake recovery, based on increasingly more fake numbers, relying on hoarding of unsellable products (just as GM has been doing lately).

Here are the key subindices that caught our attention at the advance release:

  • Machinery: -3.9%
  • Computers and electronic products: -7.7%
  • Defense aircraft and parts: -25.1%

Here is how these have fared post revision:

  • Machinery: -3.7%
  • Computers and electronic products: -7.9%
  • Defense aircraft and parts: -25.1%

Last time around we concluded the following: "There is no economic growth that can be achieved with a plunge across key categories like those above." Today's NFP confirms that (so far) we are right.