ES Futures Curve Hits Whopping 10 Point 6 Month Backwardation

The ES futures curve is now at inverted term levels that have been unseen for months. For all who claim that by next summer the economy will be coasting well on its way to 3.5% growth or whatever imaginary number the crowd of lemming sell-side analysts pulls out of their pocket in their imitation of Goldman's upgrade, there sure is no actual conviction in this call. The differential between the Dec and the June ES contracts is a notable 10 points: December is at 1,246 while June is at 1,236. This is reminiscent of the curve last December, when those who bet that the market would be substantially lower half a year forward ended up being right on the money. For those who still believe in logic, a compression trade where one sells the Dec and buys the Jun contract may make sense, although with the only variable these days being what side of the bed Brian Sack wakes up on, we would be very cautious. As a reminder, the last time the VIX curve had a normal contango curve structure, was back in 2008, when the Bernanke Put was still being digested.

And here is how it looked two years ago:


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