Gallup Polling Paints A Much Bleaker Economic Outlook Picture Than UMichigan

Even as the increasingly more unreliable UMichigan consumer confidence index surged more than expected in June, to the highest reading in two years, in yet another doctored attempt to stimulate consumers to buy assorted trinkets they don't need and max out their credit cards, a comparable, and traditionally much more comprehensive Gallup polls, paints a vastly different picture. As the chart below demonstrates,  the spread between those who see the economy as getting better (32%) and worse (63%) has hit 31, and is threatening to break out the highest reading recorded in the past year. It is no surprise that with nobody trading at all, US stocks are back to their old trickey of spiking ever higher on no volume and on increasingly worse news out of Europe, and not to mention on an atrocious NFP and retail saels report for May, both of which are now promptly forgotten.

Gallup spread between those who see the economy as getting better and worse.

Confirming the above data, is the Gallup economic confidence index which has also taken a sharp turn lower.

A brief reminder on Gallup's polling methodology:

Each day Gallup asks Americans if they think that economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse. The results are reported here and also included in Gallup's consumer confidence measure. Results are based on telephone interviews with approximately 1,500 national adults; Margin of error is ±3 percentage points.


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