Following up on the popular Global Tactical Asset Allocation report posted yesterday, we present Damien Cleusix' deep dive in equities: the GTAA - Equities version.
Valuations are now above levels where performance going forward will not please the buy & hold crowd, even if we go back to the good old days, the credit bubble stops deflating, growth reaches pre-2007 level in a sustainable manner .... At 1200 on the S&P 500 will be priced more expensively than all of the structural tops pre-2000 (well 1997-2000) except the final tail of the 1929 move ... This does not imply that the market will fall in the short or even the medium term but that a further rise will only have speculative and no investment merit if bought. Our base assumption remains that we will fall to significantly undervalued levels before a new secular bull market can start (in the developed world as you know we believe that we are in a secular bull market in emerging markets). This currently implies a sub-530 level on the S&P 500 going up by 5-6% a year.
55 pages of equity-related observations for your reading pleasure.
And again, should you want a copy of the pdf, please email us directly.