From Goldman's Erik Nielsen. Since this contradicts the previous post about the IMF bailout specifics, we assume this is merely Goldman loading up on more Greek bonds in anticipation of selling all at par on Monday morning:
According to Bloomberg, the ECB has called an extra-ordinary GC meeting tonight to “discuss latest developments”.
I don’t have any concrete information, but in my opinion there are two possibilities:
1. A Greek package will be sorted this weekend. I’ll give this less than 5% probability. I have spoken with people in Athens this afternoon (I am all over the papers there today with my note from yesterday that they’ll have to go to the IMF) – and the message continues to be that there is a huge hurdle to climb before they’ll ask the IMF for help. Also, the key IMF people are still in Washington at this time.
2. A serious banking problem is about to emerge and a safety net has to be provided before Monday morning. This could relate to Greece – or it could be another of these cross-country unclear cases, like Alpe Hypo, where Trichet had to step in.
Stay tuned – will be back if and when we learn more
Erik F. Nielsen