Initial Claims Confirm Economic Deterioration: +471k, Miss Expectations By 31k, Previous 446k

Initial claims come in at 471k, increasing the divergence from consensus which was at 440k. Continuing claims 4,625k vs expectations of 4,610k. Not much to be said: the economy is now openly double dipping in the all important housing and employment sectors. The market, which is now below the 200 DMA will shortly follow.

From Market News:

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment benefits rose 25,000 to 471,000 in the May 15 employment survey week after seasonal adjustment, according to data released by the U.S. Labor Department Thursday morning.

A Labor analyst said that there were no special factors and no states estimated in the current week’s claims data, which was well above the 440,000 level expected in a Market News International survey of economists. Initial claims were revised up slightly to a 446,000 level in the May 8 week from the originally reported 444,000 level and are now unchanged from the May 1 week.

Seasonal adjustment factors expected a drop in unadjusted claims of about 5.7%, which would have been a decline of about 23,000 claims. Unadjusted initial claims actually fell only 0.4%, or 1,819, to a level of 407,940. This is still well below the 540,925 level in the comparable week a year earlier.

Initial claims in the current week were 12,000 above the 459,000 level reported in the April 17 employment survey week.

The initial claims seasonally adjusted 4-week average rose 3,000 to 453,500 in the May 15 week, but remained below the 459,000 level two weeks earlier.

In the May 8 week, continuing claims fell by 40,000 to 4.625 million and were down 113,074 unadjusted. Continuing claims were at
their lowest levels since the March 27 week, when they stood at 4.562 million.

The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained at 3.6% in the May 8 week, which is well below the 4.8% rate in the comparable week a year earlier.

The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.

The Labor Department said that there were 94,788 less unadjusted Emergency Unemployment Compensation benefits claims in the May 1 week, bringing that category to 5,101,246. Extended benefits claims rose by 21,419 to 240,260 not seasonally adjusted.


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