Initial Claims Disappoint Again, Print At 428K On Expectations Of 420K, Prior At 429K

And the same old show and dance persists as initial claims continue confirming that at its core, the US economy is not improving one bit following the 12th consecutive claims pring over 400K. We still expect the June NFP consensus to be cut. The BLS reported that initial claims in the week ended June 25 were 428K, much higher than the expected 420K. Initial claims also missed expectations of 3,690K, printing at 3,702K. And guess what: this too is a drop from the upward revised 3714K, previously 3,697K. Both numbers this week will be revised higher next week, which will bring the rolling average far higher.

There were 9 states with a decline and 6 states with an increase of more than 1,000 claims W/W. The biggest deterioration was in California at 4,393 due to layoffs in the service industry, and New Jersey at +3,274 due to "Layoffs in the transportation, warehousing and services industries due to school closures." In other words, the two most insolvent states continue to be the most insolvent.

The 99 week cliff reappeared again as net 27K people exhausted EUC and Extended Benefits and are no longer funded by Uncle Sam with weekly $400 paychecks.