ISM New Orders Less Inventories Decoupling Hits Unprecedented Levels, Implies Sub-45 ISM Composite

While all the algos are scanning the ISM general business conditions headline, the New Orders Less Inventories spread, which leads the broader index by 3 months, has tumbled and the divergence between it and the ISM Composite is now at near record wide levels. The last time this spread closed in a favorable fashion was back in 2010, when QE1 and 2 goosed the market and the general manufacturing space. This time around, in the absence of another stimulus, the spread will close again all right, but not the way it did last time around, and explains why an ISM analyst just said new orders "not where we'd like it to be." The sub 50 ISM print is coming. Just not this month.

h/t John Lohman


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