Laszlo Birinyi, the Hungarian famous for discovering such curious novel uses for a ruler such as i.e., a stock price forecast device, has just officially reached over into the twilight zone and pulled out his forecast for the S&P for 2013, September 4th to be precise, not 3rd not 5th, and it is, hold on to your hats, 2,854, or well over a double in just over 3 years. Bloomberg clarifies this particular prediction which is either pure idiocy or even purer brilliance: "While this ‘forecast’ is fraught with potential pitfalls, unseen events and caveats,” investors should be optimistic about the U.S. stock market, given its history, Birinyi wrote." While not sure what particular history Birinyi is referring to, it most likely is not the 50%+ plunge in the market in a year and a half, when it became all too clear for a few brief days, that the entire global financial system is one big ponzi.
Birinyi said given how long the advances that began in 1962, 1982, 1990 and 2002 lasted, the current rally should continue another 32 months. Historical precedent shows that gains are largest in the first and last quarters of bull markets, according to research conducted by Westport, Connecticut-based Birinyi Associates Inc. The first of this increase ended in April 2010, and the final quarter may start in July 2012, he said in a report e-mailed to clients today.
Birinyi, who analyzes historical charts and patterns to make forecasts, said in December that the S&P 500 will climb to 1,333 this year, joining money manager Leon Cooperman in citing higher earnings and valuations below historic levels. Earnings should advance 14 percent this year after they beat estimates in the three quarters reported so far for 2010, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Birinyi’s 2011 forecast compares with the 1,371 average of 11 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent to 1,268.42 at 11:03 a.m. New York time today, after advancing 13 percent in 2010.
While we fail to see how someone who is an "expert" in analyzing historical charts and patterns to make forecasts, can cite fundamental reasons for a justification, we are confident that everyone will be holding their breath for the next three years. And while we would love for Laszlo to be correct, the only way this prediction will every come true, is if the US currency enter a period where it loses 100% of its value a day. In that case the stock market will hit not 2,854 but 2.8E666, a number that as Zimbabwe learned fast, has little practical use.
And before some may accuse Biriinyi of dementia, here is his terrific track record from a decade ago (h/t thetrading)