From John Lohman
As usual, the Department of [no] Labor did not fail to deliver its usual Thursday morning humor: yet more upward revisions to initial and continuing jobless claims (initial were revised upward by 8,000, while continuing were revised 12,000 higher). But the unexpected round two of laughter came from Rick Santelli’s instantaneous description of the report. For those that missed it, his FTMFW quote is below, followed by a visual of the claims cluster:
Of course, this is old news and has been pointed out ad nauseam on ZH (2010 summary here, and longer-term view here). It’s already known, based on the percent of up revisions vs. down, that the binomial probability of the initial report being unbiased (either statistically or otherwise) is precisely 0.000000004% (which incidentally is rumored to also be the probability of Cramer’s foundation making money this year).
What was news, however, were the annual revisions that were released with the report. More humor: they were larger than the first revisions and contained comparable levels of upward bias. While free entertainment is always welcome, one can’t help but wonder why the DOL doesn’t borrow one of the FRBNY’s interns to adjust the specs in their model. It’s not like removing a predictable bias in a model is rocket science. The only legitimate explanation could be, well, Rick’s.
And for those who may have missed it, here is Rick Santelli's latest moment of insanity when confronted with monumental bullshit (link in case CNBC decides to take the embed version down):