Quantifying The Impact Of "Bailout #2" On Greek Bonds

While the transitory (see, we can use that word too) surge in the EURUSD (and thus the S&P) may have already peaked, with the FX pair now at overnight lows, and likely soon to retrace the entire "bailout #2 rumor" spike, the one question few are asking is just how big of an impact is Germany's alleged (we have yet to see official confirmation that the WSJ story is correct) concession to a less dire Greek bailout #2 on the one instrument it is supposedly focused on, i.e., Greek 10 Year bonds. The chart below answers that question. From a high just over 16%, the 6.25% GGBs of 6/19/2020 have seen a "massive" plunge... of 32 bps. As of today, pricing in Bailout #2, the market is so antsy to get into Greek bonds that the 10 year is down to a whopping 15.843%. But at least the true focus on the "Greek bailout", the DAX and the RUT, are doing their thing.