Summarizing Today's Economic Data Barrage

Today's economic data barrage:

  • Initial claims at 405K, better than consensus 415K. This number is probably totally bogus due to next week's imminent revision much higher: last week's number was revised from 418K to a whopping 427K; 4 week moving average 423.8K; Driver likely lack of auto plant shutdowns, says Bloomberg economist Joseph Brusuelas
  • Non seasonally adjusted claims up 45K to 470K
  • Continuing Claims 3,727K vs. Exp. 3,680K. And another massive reivision higher: previous at 3681K, revised to 3712K.
  • The Unemployed on EUCs and Extended Benefits continue declining, down 16K in the week ended June 25
  • PPI in June fell 0.4% M/m vs est. 0.2% decline (range 0.6% drop to 0.3% rise) - biggest drop since February 2010; PPI ex. food, energy up 0.3% vs est. 0.2% gain (range 0.1%-0.3%); Less threatening inflation situation’’ helps Fed if they have any thoughts of QE3, says Bloomberg economist Rich Yamarone
  • June Advance Retail Sales up 0.1% vs est. 0.1% drop (range 0.7% decline to 0.5% gain); Ex. autos unchanged, matching est. (range 0.8% drop to 0.5% gain); Ex. autos and gas up 0.2% vs est. 0.4% gain (range 0.1%-0.8% rise); Unexpected rise in motor vehicles, parts likely behind increase in headline; may be “somewhat suspicious,” says Brusuelas

Overall a better than expected set of data, except for the traditional BLS jobs data manipulation





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