Case-Shiller house prices, the Chicago PMI, and consumer confidence. Fasten your seatbelts: bizarro day will be fully enforced today with horrible data leading to market surges.
9:00: S&P/Case-Shiller home price index (March): Possible increase. Unlike the consensus, Goldman forecasts an increase of 0.1% mom in the Case-Shiller house price index, based on its model using asking prices. This would be the first increase in the index since May 2010. The consensus forecasts a 0.2% decline, in line with the previous month.
GS +0.1%; median forecast (of 18): -0.2%; last -0.2%.
9:45: Chicago purchasing managers’ index (May). Effects of auto shock. Goldman forecast that the Chicago PMI fell to 62.0 in May from 67.6 previously, consistent with the sizable declines in the other regional manufacturing indexes. Our research finds that the Chicago index is most sensitive to changes in auto production, and so should show effects of recent cutbacks at the Japanese-brand automakers.
GS: 62.0; median forecast (of 49): 62.0; last 67.6.
10:00: Conference Board confidence index (May): Small gain. Like the University of Michigan measure of sentiment, GS expects a small increase in the Conference Board’s measure of household confidence. Improving job market prospects and the decline in gas prices, in particular, should help consumer attitudes.
GS: 67.0; median forecast (of 60): 66.5; last 65.4.
11:00: New York Fed complete tiny POMO, monetizing $1.5.$2.5 billion in debt maturing 08/15/2028-05/15/2041
From GS and ZH