Today's Economic Data Highlights

Small business sentiment (which misses badly), wholesale inventories, JOLTS, and weakly [sic] lack of confidence…Last POMO of current schedule ends at 11 am, and new schedule is released by several 20 year olds at 2 pm.

7:30: NFIB small business optimism index for Dec…up further?  This index reached a new high for the recovery last month, and all eight of the economists who forecast it look for further progress.  The improvement in recent months reflects modestly better assessments for a wide range of business conditions, including expectations of easier credit, better general economic conditions, sales, and plans to increase employment.
Median forecast (of 8): 94.5, ranging from 93.5 to 95; last 93.2.

Update: NFIB comes at 92.6, and the bottom falls out of the projection. The hope for a pick-up in the small business sector did not materialise, according to William Dunkelberg, the groups chief economist. Owners remain stubbornly cautious and uncertain about the future course of the economy and their business prospects.

10:00: Wholesale inventories for Nov…moderation?  These inventories are goods that are essentially in transit from factories or from the docks to final destinations such as retail outlets and are therefore difficult to forecast.  Analysts are looking for a much more moderate increase than the +2% average monthly change reported for September and October.
Median forecast (of 31): +1.0%, ranging from +0.5% to +1.5%; last +1.9%.
10:00 JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) for Nov
…This monthly data tracking the number of job openings, hires, and separations shows modest improvement on both the vacancies and the separations, but little evidence yet of a pickup in hires.

11:00 Last POMO of current schedule... in which the Fed buys $7-9 billion of debt due 7/31/2016 – 12/31/2017. At 2 PM the next schedule will be released, and we expect this number will be slightly higher than the current $105 billion per month.

17:00: ABC consumer comfort index…still mired.  This index edged off another point to -45 in the final week ending in New Year’s Day. Nobody cares about this one as it refuses to cooperate with the Ponzi marketing pitchbook.

From Goldman's Ed McKelvey and Zero Hedge


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