Today's Economic Data Highlights

Personal spending and income, Chicago purchasing managers, and the Dallas Fed index…. And then the traditional 11am POMO of course- must monetize those bonds.
8:30: Personal income and outlays for Dec....sturdy gains.  The preliminary estimate of fourth-quarter growth implies that income and spending either registered firm gains in December or were revised up in prior months.  Absent revisions, income would be up 0.8% and spending up 0.7%.  Of course, there will be revisions, and they will be helpful in gauging the momentum of consumer activity as 2010 drew to a close.  The parallel calculation for the core PCE price index yields an increase of 0.11%, which is exactly what we would have estimated anyway.
On income,  median forecast (of 59): +0.4%, ranging from +0.2% to +0.8%; last +0.3%.
On spending, median forecast (of 59): 0.5%, ranging from +0.2% to +0.8%; last +0.4%.
On PCE core price index: median forecast (of 40): +0.1%, ranging from flat to +0.1%; last +0.08%.
9:45: Chicago purchasing managers’ index for Jan…moderating but still strong?  This index has run stronger than the national ISM manufacturing index in recent months, presumably due to the larger weight that auto-related production has in this region.  We expect it to moderate a bit from the strong reading for December but remain firm.
Median forecast (of 42): 64.5, ranging from 60 to 71.3; last 66.8.
10:30: Dallas Fed manufacturing index for Jan…will it show continued growth?  After a brief sojourn in deep negative territory during the third quarter, this index recovered during the fourth quarter.  The handful of economists who forecast it expect it to remain there.
Median forecast (of 6): +15, ranging from +12 to +19; last +12.8.



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