Data on Personal Income should indicate another reduction in the savings rate, Chicago PMI will miss consensus confirming economy is in Japan-induced freefall, UMichigan will poll a couple of Wall Street CEOs who have never seen Jeeves happier, and lastly Bernanke will speak in some televized conference and not providing any new data as usual.
8:30: Personal income and outlays (March): Monthly details. All the data released with the March Personal Income and Outlays report were implicitly included in yesterday’s Q1 GDP release. The value of today’s data will be in details around the underlying monthly trajectories. Under the assumption of no revisions to January and February, the published quarterly data imply growth of 1.1% in real consumer spending in March. This outsized growth rate suggests a strong March reading and upward revisions to previous months. The same exercise for the core PCE deflator implies and increase of +0.18% for March – close to our forecast.
Income: GS +0.2%; median forecast (of 66): +0.4%; last +0.3%.
Spending: GS: +0.4%; median forecast (of 69): +0.5%; last +0.7%.
Core PCE price index: GS: +0.16%; median forecast (of 45): +0.1%; last +0.2%.
8:30: Employment cost index (Q1): Moderate wage growth. This index continues to grow at a slow pace, similar to other measures of wages, such as average hourly earnings.
GS: +0.5%; median forecast (of 46): +0.5%; last +0.4%.
8:40: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard at community affairs conference.
9:45: Chicago purchasing managers’ index (April). Large decline. We forecast a sharp decline in the Chicago purchasing mangers’ index, as we believe the region could be affected by supply-chain disruptions in the motor vehicle sector caused by natural disasters in Japan (for details see Andrew Tilton, “The Effects of Japanese Supply Chain Disruptions on US GDP”, US Daily, April 20, 2010).
GS: 65.0; median forecast (of 49): 68.2; last 70.6.
10:00 (9:55 to subscribers): Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment (April final): Possibly small increase. Forecasters are looking for this index to show a small increase after stabilizing in the preliminary April report. Its inflation expectations measures will likely receive extra attention. In the preliminary April release, the measure of 5-10yr inflation expectations fell to 2.9% from 3.2% previously.
Median forecast (of 52): 70.0; last 69.6 (Apr prelim).
12:30: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at community affairs conference.
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