SocGen has a useful tracker of Consensus vs Actual economic data, or a +/- Surprise indicator, which is presented below as updated for everything through today's NFP, excluding the disappointing Service ISM. While it is unclear how the firm's assigns a surprise relevance rating to any given economic data point, if the firm finds the Mfg ISM worthy of a +2, then it should finds today's Service ISM at about -3, which unfortunately would not help out the firm's pretty squiggly regression line, and would certainly eliminate the upward slope.
Tracking [Upside|Downside] Economic Data Surprise
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