Below is an update of the most recent US Treasury tax withholding picture. As one can very plainly see it is getting worse, on both a week over week, a YTD cumulative basis, and, probably most relevantly to some readers, on a 4 week running bucket cumulative basis. In the week ended April 16, the US Treasury collected $29.3 billion, 10% less than the comparable week in the prior year when $32.5 billion was withheld. Cumulatively, the difference is now at an almost 2010 low, dropping to a $16.7 billion difference between the YTD period and the comparable period in 2009.
The WoW chart below is self-explanatory.
The same chart on a comparartive cumulative YTD basis. Note the deterioration in comps in the last week, which has dropped to the lowest since Week 3.
And since some have pointed out it makes sense to demonstrate monthly performance, here is the cumulative monthly chart by weekly buckets Year To Date. We dare ask: where is this alleged sustainable improvement since the beginning of the year?
To be sure, the last bucket includes just Weeks 13-15, so one more week will be required for an apples to apples 4 week bucket. For the last bucket to be merely flat (0.0% change), the current week will need to generate $33.1 billion in tax withholdings, a 19% increase over the $26.8 billion withheld in the year ago period. We will update this chart once this week's data is released. We are not anticipating a 19% increase in weekly withholdings.