What To Look Forward To In Today's US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue

Yes, Geithner, and the US "strong dollar policy" take center stage again... Hilarity (at least for Chinese students) ensues.

Key events:

  • 9:15 am – Treasury Sec. Geithner delivers SED opening remarks. He is leading the economic track of the talks.
  • 9:15 am – Sec. of State Clinton delivers SED opening remarks. She is leading the strategic track of the talks.
  • 9:30 am – VP Biden opens US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue. The SED will run through tomorrow.
  • 6:00 pm – President Obama meets with senior members of the delegation to the Strategic and Economic Dialogue.

And the take of Citi's Steven Englander:

US/China to begin strategic monologues this afternoon

China has sent a delegation to Washington, led by Vice Premier Wang Qishan, to meet with a US team led by Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner starting this afternoon.  According to what US sources have tipped the US media, FX will be an important part of the dialogue, with the US apparently slated again to press China for a faster pace of CNY appreciation.  If that is the case, we can almost predict the likely Chinese response: China pressing the US to end QE2 and tighten both monetary and fiscal policy.  If that is the case, we don't see what is different between this dialogue and the cross talk that has occurred at this year's two G20 finance officials meetings.  The most likely outcome is likely a continuation of the same dynamic in G10 currencies that we've seen for the past eight months, with China rapidly accumulating reserves and recycling them out to currencies like AUD and CAD in addition to EUR.


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