Gold- The End Is Near, Ready For The Opportunity?

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The Long-Term trend for Gold is up, as it continues to remain above 17-year support line (1).

The 7-year trend for Gold is down, as it continues to trade below falling resistance line (2).

These two long-term support/resistance lines look to be forming a multi-year pennant pattern that is “About To End.”  Pennant patterns often indicate frustration for both bulls and bears as the price action is choppy, trendless and narrowing. These patterns often lead to opportunities when the pattern ends, as large moves often follow a breakout or breakdown.

Dual resistance is in play for Gold just above current prices. Should it succeed in breaking out, what could the rally look like?

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If Gold would happen to break above heavy dual resistance, the “Measured Move” suggests it could rally to at least the $1,800 level at (1).

At the 2011 highs, the Power of the Pattern suggested that “Gold could be flat to down for years to come.” If Gold would breakout above dual resistance at the end of this pennant pattern, it would be the best price message gold has seen in years.

What Gold does at the end of this pennant pattern is important and a breakout or breakdown will create multi-year opportunities! If you would like to receive pattern analysis on Gold, Gold Miners, Silver or Copper, we would be honored if you were a Metals Members.

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Comments

Conax Thu, 05/03/2018 - 20:10 Permalink

I think the chart shows that the bullion banks and regulators have held gold down a little too much for a little too long. It is finally looking pretty cheap, especially compared to equities and btc.  It may become too difficult to hold down at these levels and a higher level will become the new line in the sand.

They'll keep it on the leash as long as they possibly can. It's a mania of theirs. And they call some of us 'bugs'. Any bugs are in their greedy, criminal brains.

Gold and silver are real money.  I like money. 

captain whitewater Thu, 05/03/2018 - 20:32 Permalink

Every 6 to 10 years gold and silver have to move up to be given the value increase in the rear view mirror (and as a result of deficit spending by government). They cannot be allowed to go to $2000 or $50 an ounce respectively if FRN are to be the money we are told to use to for all debts public and private. There is no true timetable for any jump in price at this point as that huge price adjustment will spell the end of fiat money and the institutions that rely upon it.

We saw this when gold hit $1900. There was no way that the FED could let that hold.  They will stop it, lie about it or manipulate it down with the help of every central bank (that uses fiat money) in the world.  Some institutions may be holding large quantities of precious but they will never be allowed to dump fiat money while expecting regulators to back their savings account deposits.  

Any breakout that comes will not be indicated by any chart or any prediction. It will happen when too many things cannot stop the momentum of an upswing.  Everything else is just a guess. Charts are bull shit.  Experts are nothing better than a rural village shaman who throws bones on the ground to predict the future.

DuckDog captain whitewater Thu, 05/03/2018 - 21:17 Permalink

I use to be a fool and look at charts and read the endless analysis articles, when the SHTF it's just going to happen with no warning, they are not going to give us a shot over the bow to worn us either.

It comes down to "Either you're too early or it's too late", I like being early to parties always have... 

Just keep staking and don't listen to the noise...

In reply to by captain whitewater

GunnerySgtHartman Easyp Fri, 05/04/2018 - 09:24 Permalink

It's my view that if the government tried to ban gold/silver ownership again, the backlash would be so great that they'd have to back off of it or not even do it in the first place.

Much of the public placed their "trust," perhaps better described as a "foolish blind faith," in FDR to lead them out of the Depression.  Due primarily to the FED-induced economic circumstances of the time and FDR's finely-honed political skills, people took him at his word and dutifully turned in their PMs.  FDR used this sheep-like mentality to expand government far beyond anything the Founders imagined, getting him elected four times.  While there are still a number of sheeple out there today (Bernie supporters immediately come to mind), there are also far more skeptics out there who aren't afraid to say what they think and challenge TPTB (to say nothing of tying up such a ban in court).

At any rate, if the government did succeed in banning private ownership of gold & silver, I'm willing to bet that many - if not most - holders wouldn't turn it in.  Such a ban would simply create an underground economy for PMs.  And if PMs were banned by government edict, cryptos not controlled by the FED would also have to be banned.  Can't have people operating outside the system, you know.

In reply to by Easyp

lunaticfringe GunnerySgtHartman Fri, 05/04/2018 - 11:59 Permalink

I tend to agree with you. They won't ban ownership though- they will simply try to tax the sale of it like Bitcoin. 

Don't ever underestimate the stupidity of people to ignore history and forget what FDR did. This was a guy who locked up 130,000 Japanese Americans (executive order) who had committed no crime, and received no due process. Apparently nobody gave a fuck back then and I don't think apathy or self centered-ness is on the decline.

 

In reply to by GunnerySgtHartman

Consuelo Thu, 05/03/2018 - 22:28 Permalink

- The Fed doesn't have as strong a hand as it did in 2008  

- China and Russia weren't the 'allies' then, that they are now

- China had a fraction of the leverage it has now in 2008 regarding trade 

- Permanent geopolitical shifts are now underway

- U.S. Debt & deficits rising rapidly

- U.S. itching for a conflict; a. to ensure $USD recycling, b. to feed MIC-related GDP

JLM Fri, 05/04/2018 - 00:27 Permalink

Not to be too negative but drawing lines on charts is fun.  I "see" a five wave A down after the top followed by an abc correction B wave up to point three.  Guess what happens next? Vicious C wave down.  lol  You can convince yourself of anything if you try hard enough by drawing pretty pictures. 

The only safety here is to know the whole thing is rigged and to follow their slime trail which ever way they take it.

JailBanksters Fri, 05/04/2018 - 02:08 Permalink

If I would have bought double the number ounces each time I read about this "opportunity" in the past 8 years, I would own every single ounce of Gold ever produced.

Seb Fri, 05/04/2018 - 03:11 Permalink

If Gold would happen to break above heavy dual resistance, the “Measured Move” suggests it could rally to at least the $1,800 level

Oh, just stop it!

It's like reading tea leaves.

galant Fri, 05/04/2018 - 06:00 Permalink

"The Long-Term trend for Gold is up, as it continues to remain above 17-year support line (1).

The 7-year trend for Gold is down, as it continues to trade below falling resistance line (2)."

That is a very valuable analysis. The price of gold might go up or down.

Easyp Fri, 05/04/2018 - 06:17 Permalink

I hold a little physical silver (as coins) plus a modest amount of shares in gold and silver miners and they have been going nowhere for years despite the monthly stories/hype about it all changing soon....

Small investors have to accept that the precious metals markets are rigged by the state and therefore however irrational the markets are you would be busted betting everything against them right now.

Trickle invest....

snblitz Fri, 05/04/2018 - 14:22 Permalink

Gold is worth plenty whether it goes up or down.

Which investment do you wish you made in 1965?

  • housing $24,000 -> $1,500,000
  • gold $24,000 ($35) -> $900,000 ($1325)
  • S&P 500 $24,000 ($86) -> $735,000 ($2636)
  • mattress stuffing $24,000 -> $24,000
  • T-bills $24,000 -> $117,000 (3%)
  • bars of soap $24,000 ($0.16) -> $225,000 ($1.50)

My Mom picked housing and hates gold.

Asset value inflation vs real wealth

Now here is a very important question:  Did all those assets really become more valuable or did dollars become less valuable?

You must recognize that dollars losing value does not mean you are making money when other assets rise in dollar terms.

That is the hardest lesson to learn about investing.

And it is a rare article indeed in which the author understands this simple concept.  Even the gold bugs often get it wrong.

Sure the excitement of quick gains seems to appeal to everyone, but what good are quick gains when you are losing 98.4% of the value of your holdings over 50 years?  1-(1/ (1,500,000/24,000) = 98.4%.

You look at my Mom's house and say she made a fortune.  But if she sold that house and wanted to buy it back guess what happens?

She can't do it!  The $1,500,000 still only buys a house just like hers.

**AND** she has to pay capital gains when she sells.  As she is in California.  That means 20% fed + 13.3% state.

So she sells her house and nets only $1,000,000 ($1,500,00 * (1-0.20-0.133).

She cannot even buy back her own house or a similar one.

She lost 33% to taxes.

What wealth was created by the growth in dollar value from $24,000 to $1,500,000?

None! Not only is she treading water so far as housing is concerned, but to move she will lose 33%.

The house did however do something positive.  It did allow her to tread water.  Look what would have happened if she as just held the $24,000 in 1965 in a safe deposit box.

Today she would have $24,000 not $1,500,000. And the  $24,000 would buy precious little today.  Maybe a low end car.

The reason all this craziness occurs is two fold.

One) you are sold on the lie that rising asset values are wealth

Two) others (banks & the government) are stealing you blind.

https://finitespaces.com/2018/04/07/why-we-create-sound-money-and-governments-wreck-them

Rising asset values are simply protection from the loss of purchasing power (value) of the US dollar.

Here is another question you might ask yourself:

Why do I have to pay 33% in taxes on a "gain" that is not real?

The government is charging you 33% to allow you to protect your wealth from the government's devaluation of the dollar.