Update (1500 ET): On Friday, BAMWX's meteorologists have posted numerous weather models that suggest frigid air is headed for some parts of the US.
"This is the NAEFS which is the North American ensemble forecast system. This is a loop of 5 day chunks over the next 14 days. I have never seen this product forecast even close to this level of cold it's forecasting," said BAMWX's Twitter account.
This is the NAEFS which is the North American ensemble forecast system. This is a loop of 5 day chunks over the next 14 days. I have never seen this product forecast even close to this level of cold it’s forecasting. #natgas #oott #PolarVortex pic.twitter.com/75mfkdUqjy— BAMWX (@bamwxcom) February 5, 2021
"Multiple drivers aligning for big cold to develop over the next few weeks," BAMWX's meteorologist Kirk Hinz said.
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Readers may recall that natural gas prices erupted earlier in the week as weather models shifted to a much colder setup for the next two weeks.
Expanding more on what's to come is BAMWX's meteorologist Kirk Hinz who published an in-depth update on Thursday describing how temperatures over the next couple of weeks will be well below average, thus boosting heating degree days, a sign that natgas demand will surge as people turn up their thermostats to stay warm.
⚠️Here is a preview for all of you #natgas and #energy traders out there.— BAMWX (@bamwxcom) February 4, 2021
This is our PM energy check-up report.
Official https://t.co/NbZ8MYaz00 forecast got even colder for week 2 next week. 🥶 pic.twitter.com/sk9Rhyza2R
For week one, Hinz outlines:
- No changes in our week 1 forecast vs this AM.
- Over the next week we expect temperatures vs normal to average 15 to 20
- degrees below normal on a widespread scale from Montana to Kansas City, Chicago, near Indianapolis, and all areas in between.
- The cold vs normal is also expected to drop all the way down to near Dallas and Houston, and extend as far east as New York City.
- The extent of location of the cold vs normal will continue to allow national gas weighted heating demand to run much above normal and continue to rise for week 1 in the coming days.
Week two, he said:
- BAM forecast change: We've trended our forecast even colder this afternoon, from 255 to 265.
- The data trended widespread colder once again on 12z today, especially the Euro ensemble that trended over 25 GWHDDs colder vs Oz.
- We didn't trend our forecast as high as the Euro ensemble, keeping it closer to the more consistent American ensemble solution.
- With the Polar Vortex looking to remain in a very favorable position for arctic blasts of air, expect additional notable cold behind storm systems into the week 2 period. We think that this continues throughout week 2, especially as the colder air sinks further south related to MJO phase 8.
- One risk we will need to watch is what the MJO does after phase 8. If it lingers in phase 8 this more widespread cold pattern for the Central and Eastern US will linger. If we move Into MJO phase 1, the southeast US ridge may try to return late week 2. Regardless, the colder air to the north should persist, but it could allow for HDDs to tick down a bit late week 2.
BAMWX's PM Energy Check-Up report dated Feb. 4 shows week 2 (between Feb.11-17) temperature forecast could be trending well below normal for much of the US.
Much of the colder air for week 2 could be positioned across the US' central and eastern parts.
Heating degree days for weeks 1 and 2 show a large surge beginning early next week, which means it will take more energy to heat a residential or commercial structure as temperatures dive.
Natural-gas futures weekly hold above the 200 exponential moving average and have reclaimed the $3 handle on Friday morning.
Here's the full outlook: