Just in case the coming global famine, which One River CIO Eric Peters likened to the original Holodomor (which incidentally took place in Ukraine under Stalin), isn't bad enough, moments ago Russia warned that it could be even worse.
According to Interfax, Russia's Agriculture Ministry said that the country could ban wheat, rye, barley and corn exports from March 15 to June 30.
"The Agriculture Ministry, together with the Industry and Trade Ministry, has drafted a government resolution that provides for a temporary ban on the export of basic grain crops from Russia from March 15 to June 30 of the current year inclusive," the ministry's press office told Interfax.
The exact wording is to impose from March 15 to June 30, 2022 inclusive a temporary ban on the export of wheat and meslin, rye, barley and corn from the Russian Federation, it said.
While there is still hope that a worst case scenario can be averted, overnight we reported that according to Douglas Karr, founder of the businesses blog Martech Zone, a food shortage is well on its way to the US. Karr said he spoke with numerous folks in the food industry who said farmers in the South and Midwest are having trouble procuring fertilizer to grow crops ahead of planting season. He said farmers in the "Midwest are switching," likely referring to crops that need fewer nutrients because they "can't get nitrogen nor fertilizer."
Convo with farm today:— Douglas Karr (@douglaskarr) March 11, 2022
- Meat processors booked out a year because stockpiling beef.
- Farmers in South can’t get fertilizer for crops now.
- Farmers in Midwest are switching, can’t get nitrogen nor fertilizer.
Buckle up, folks! The media isn’t even warning you. #economy
Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, the global food system was strained. Snarled supply chains and adverse weather conditions in top growing regions of the world resulted in low crop yields and rising prices. The Ukraine supply shock will only amplify the crisis as the UN warned global food prices could jump 8%-20% from here (prices are already at record highs).
Needless to say, the implications should Russia - which suplies much of the emerging market with this core staple - ban wheat exports ...
... are dire, and would lead to a far worse global food shortage - and crisis - than what was observed during the 2011 Arab Spring that unleashed a cascade of revolutions across the northern Africa and middle eastern regions.