US jet-fuel inventories have fallen to a seventeen-year low. More troubling is that jet-fuel inventories for the US East Coast (PADD 1) have fallen to a 25-year low. Tight fuel supplies ahead of a traditionally busy travel season may suggest ticket prices could jump.
U.S. inventories of jet-fuel are at the lowest level for this time of the year in 17 years. For the East coast (PADD 1), they are the lowest seasonal level since 1997. Airline programs suggest a big rise in flights coming in the next 5 months. Jet is going to be very tight #OOTT— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) April 6, 2022
US jet-fuel inventories are well below average.
US East Coast PADD 1 Jet-Fuel Inventory Hits 25-Year Low
On the other hand, Jet-fuel prices (now at a record-high) have risen more than 162% since mid-March, mainly on energy supply disruptions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions.
What this may suggest is that tight fuel supplies plus soaring travel demand could force airlines to boost ticket prices. Although the correlation between jet-fuel inventories at PADD 1 and US CPI airfare isn't clean, it at least allows some understanding that airlines could soon pass along fuel costs to consumers with higher airfare.
"The consumer will see an impact in fares. There's no question about it. Or they will see airlines cut back on flights," Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, told CNN.
With Memorial Day holiday weekend (one of the busiest travel times of the year) less than two months away, consumers could be greeted with rising ticket prices, and those who drive will be greeted with record-high gasoline and diesel prices. On top of this, consumers are getting hit with record-high food inflation. It's only a matter of time before consumers go on strike.