The other day, we shared some official CDC numbers suggesting the COVID wave had likely peaked across the Northeast. Well, on Monday, CDC numbers cited by Bloomberg appeared to suggest that much of the US is seeing a similar pattern, as the latest delta-driven summer COVID wave finally begins to crest, just as President Biden is pushing third jabs and vaccine mandates across the US workforce (and, eventually, in schools).
According to the official numbers, Arkansas and Missouri, where the delta surge began, have seen their seven-day average of cases is down 12% from the peak.
And Florida and Louisiana, which have attracted the lion's share of media attention lately, have also started to see similar declines.
That would seem to suggest that the delta wave truly has begun to wane, just as Dr. Scott Gottlieb and others expected it would.
As Bloomberg points out in its story about the latest COVID trends in the US, one of the few immutable truths of the pandemic in North America (at least, so far) has been that viral surges haven't lasted more than a few months. Afterwards, we see daily infections decline. Then again, there's not exactly a ton of history to go on.
Obviously, the best-case scenario would be seeing COVID cases decline even more during the coming month.
The wave began in Arkansas and Missouri in early June and appears to be ending there two months laterr. Florida and Louisiana ignited about two weeks after the Ozarks, and they saw the surge last about 58 days, while in the rest of the country the wave turns 60 days old on Monday.
Covidestim, a collection of projections that Dr. Gottlieb has long cited (it includes input from scientists from virtually every major US research institution). Numbers below 1 signal that the virus is contracting, not spreading and 22 states are already below that level, per Covidestim's projections.
And once COVID peaks this time around, scientists believe the US should expect "a sustainable lull" in infections, especially as the population's immunity levels continue to rise as more vaccinations (and more infections) inevitably increase the population's immunity, even as herd immunity is believed to be beyond our reach now.
However, while case numbers appear to be dropping, deaths will likely take longer to wane, especially after America's ICUs have swelled against with terminally ill patients over the last few weeks.
Right now, more people are dying in US hospitals from COVID than at any time in February, though President Biden has assured the population that only the unvaccinated get terminally ill (with a growing number of exceptions), and that the time has come for those waiting for the FDA's final word should get off the fence and get their jabs.