The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is just 0.5 percent now, down from 1.4 percent on September 7, and down from 2.6 percent on September 1.
Downward revisions to July retail sales data and weakness in the control group weighed on growth in Q3 with weak import and export prices, as well as disappointing industrial production and capacity utilization numbers also dragging down estimates.
The Atlanta Fed breaks down the driver of the reduction - and the fact the government is all that's left to keep the dream alive... as they are supposed to be fighting inflation:
After this week's releases from the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, decreases in the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 1.7 percent and -6.1 percent, respectively, to 0.4 percent and -6.4 percent, respectively, was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real government spending growth from 1.3 percent to 2.0 percent.
So to summarize - we are just fractions away from a 3rd negative quarterly GDP print with only two weeks left in the quarter.
Finally, remember, it's not a "recession", it's a "special economic operation"