Chicago PMI Rebounds Into Expansion In July

On the heels of rebounds across various regional Fed surveys, Chicago's PMI survey rebounded from recession-signaling lows in July, jumping from 44.4 to 50.4 (back into expansion) in August.

Source: Bloomberg

5 of the components rose in July (the most since Feb)

  • Prices paid rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion

  • New orders rose and the direction reversed, signaling expansion

  • Employment fell at a slower pace, signaling contraction

  • Inventories fell and the direction reversed, signaling contraction

  • Supplier deliveries rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion

  • Production fell at a slower pace, signaling contraction

  • Order backlogs rose and the direction reversed, signaling expansion

  • Business activity has been positive for 8 months over the past year.

This follows regional Fed surveys rebound...

Source: Bloomberg

So everything is awesome again? What happens when Powell disappoints in September?