Final Q2 GDP Revision Unchanged At 2.0% Even As Profit Growth Shrinks

There were no surprises in today's second revision of Q2 GDP, which the BEA reported moments ago printed at 2.0%, just as expected, and unchanged from the 2.0% first revision estimate; the number, of course, was down from the 3.1% annualized GDP growth in Q1 which was not revised.

The revised Q2 increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending and government spending, while inventory investment, exports, business investment, and housing investment decreased. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. 

The increase in government spending reflected increases in both federal and state and local government spending.

Similar to last month, the increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both goods and services that were widespread across major categories. After jumping an upward revised 4.7% in the first revision, personal consumption was modestly trimmed, rising to 4.6% currently, which was still tied for the highest PCE in almost five years, since Q4 2014, and up sharply from just 1.1% in Q1.

Looking at the inflationary components of the report, the GDP price index rose 2.4% in 2Q after rising 1.1% prior quarter; largest increase in a year.

Yet one number came in hotter than expected, with Core PCE rising 1.9% in 2Q after rising 1.1% prior quarter, and above the 1.7% expected and also as reported in the first revision.

Nonresidential fixed investment, or spending on equipment, structures and intellectual property fell 1%.

Finally, the BEA also reported corporate profits rose 3.7% in prior quarter, down from 5.1% previously, and noted the following:

  • Corp. profits up 1.3% Y/Y in 2Q after falling 2.2% prior quarter
  • Financial industry profits increased 0.6% Q/q in 2Q after rising 5.8% prior quarter
  • Federal Reserve bank profits up 9.9% in 2Q after falling 10.9% prior quarter