The Richmond Fed Business Survey smashed expectations today - printing an expansionary +2, from February's -2 - massively better than the -13 print expected...
The reason for this shocking beat is not optimism... or a sign of a corner being turned... it is purely technical and exposes the farce of these 'soft' surveys.
The headline survey number was buoyed dramatically by a surge in supplier delivery times (which are normally a sign of improving demand) but in this case are caused by the abrupt halt of global supply chains - not a bullish thing at all.
Additionally, as is very clear, expectations for new orders collapsed to a record low.
So, the lesson is - don't just trust the headlines. Richmond Fed survey expectations are a bloodbath.