US Core Durable Goods Orders Tumble Most Since COVID Lockdown Collapse, CapEx Shrinks

After two straight months of declines, analysts expected a modest rebound in US durable goods orders, and they did, rising 0.4% MoM in preliminary Sept data (less than expected +0.6%) with August being revised upwards to a very small rise...

Source: Bloomberg

However, ex-transportation, new orders tumbled 0.5% MoM (vs +0.2% exp) - that is the biggest MoM drop since April 2020

Source: Bloomberg

The CapEx proxy -  was also a major disappointment - dropping 0.5% MoM vs expectations of a 0.5% MoM rise... and that feeds directly into GDPO calcs...

Source: Bloomberg

The big drag on new orders was a32.2% MoM drop in Defense aircraft and parts (we're gonna need moar war)...

Source: Bloomberg

So, are ISM respondents going to be proved right again, like they were in 2007-2009?

Source: Bloomberg

Perhaps this is a 'notional' new orders vs 'absolute' real ISM view of orders?