US Import/Export Prices Rise Less Than Expected In April
After a busy week for 'inflation' indicators (both CPI and PPI rose more than expected), import and export prices rose less than expected in April.
US Import prices rose 12.0% YoY in April (slower than the +13.0% in March and below the +12.3% expected)
US Export prices rose 18.0% YoY in April (slower than the +18.6% in March and below the +19.2% expected)
The inflation indicators, however, remain near decade highs...
Source: Bloomberg
Import prices from China have been exploding higher as Beijing appears to be exporting inflation to the rest of the world...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, we note that China's credit impulse has drastically shrank in recent months. Historically that has been a lead indicator for import/export prices inflation...
Source: Bloomberg
If that relationship holds, then we indeed have seen 'peak inflation' for this cycle. But have the disruptions in the global supply chain broken this relationship?
