What US Energy Agenda Will Look Like Under Republican Leadership

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Nov 09, 2022 - 01:25 PM

With Republicans expected to win (marginally) control of at least one and still maybe both chambers, the outcome will have significant implications on climate, energy and foreign policy agendas.To provide some context, in an exhaustive analysis by RBC's Helima Croft, the energy strategist lays out all the core agendas that are about to be upended:

  • White House Response – A change in congressional control will likely force the White House to move towards the center in order to get additional agenda items passed before the 2024 campaign commences in earnest. When it comes to energy policy specifically, we think the Biden administration may have to make tradeoffs on the regulatory front.

  • Iran JCPOA – A Republican midterm victory will only make it more difficult for the Biden administration to secure congressional approval of a new nuclear agreement and to waive congressionally imposed sanctions on Iranian oil exports.

  • Ukraine Funding – Congressional scrutiny over US security assistance to Ukraine, which has totaled $18.2 bln since February 24, will invariably increase if Republicans prevail on Tuesday, but we do not anticipate a sharp curtailment in financial support for Kyiv.

  • NOPEC Legislation – While NOPEC legislation has moved closer to passage than at any point in the wake of the October 5 OPEC+ production cut decision, we think there is likely a relatively limited lame duck window to try to move it to the President’s desk for signature.

  • Inflation Reduction Act – With the Inflation Reduction Act largely protected by executive veto authority, we expect oversight hearings and investigations to be the tool of choice to stymie climate funding in a Republican-controlled Congress.

  • Permitting Reform – Despite bipartisan support on passing permitting reform legislation, efforts have stagnated given the prospects of a larger Republican showing in the House.

  • SPR & Product Export Restrictions – Both SPR releases and product export restrictions may come under increased scrutiny from a Republican-controlled Congress.

  • Critical Minerals – Both parties view critical minerals as a priority, however, bipartisan unity wanes in permitting reform specifics as the US looks to expand domestic supply chains.

More details on each: