After 5 straight down days, oil managed modest gains today with WTI bouncing off $58.00 on the heels of some optimism surrounding the imminent signing of the trade deal.
"The broader energy market is likely falling back into its familiar range with WTI trading between $52 and $63" a barrel, analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in their latest newsletter.
Fundamentals are largely bearish due to oversupply concerns, especially given the huge build in stockpiles reported in the refined products last week, so all eyes will be on tonight's API data (barring any geopolitical headlines)...
Crude +1.1mm (-1.1mm exp)
Cushing -69k (-1.0mm exp)
Gasoline +3.2mm (+3.4mm exp)
Distillates +6.78mm (+1.1mm exp)
After the prior week's surprise build, analysts expected a small draw in crude (but continued builds in products). However, crude saw a build and products saw significant builds...
WTI hovered around $58.40 ahead of the data, and dropped modestly on the surprise build...
"Unfortunately for the bulls, the fundamental outlook over the first half of this year is not overly constructive. The market is set to see a sizable surplus, which should mean weakness for both the flat price and time spreads," said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, in a note.