PremiumPhoto Finish: Brazil Votes With Polls Tied, Bettors All-In On Bolsonaro, And The Market Priced For A Lula Shock
After three weeks of polls narrowing toward a tie, Brazil gets the race nobody positioned for.
On Sunday, right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva face off in a runoff that will decide whether the market's favorite EM trade of 2026 keeps running or blows up. And with the last Datafolha survey showing the two candidates at exactly 50% each of valid votes, the photo finish we flagged when the countdown entered its final week is now the base case.