Prof. Neil Ferguson, Vice Dean Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College in London, estimates 50K new infections per day.
Please consider the following video by Prof. Neil Ferguson.
10 Key Video Points
50,000 new cases a day in china
Infections doubling every 5 days
Death rate is still unknown
China likely to peak in March
Epidemic peak is still a month away
It will be very hard to control this epidemic the say way we did with SARS 15-20 years ago
Cases are always underestimated
Death delays are as long as three weeks
Reported deaths outside China are not reassuring because of delays
We still don't know the full effects
Tweet on Containment Strategies
Building on @ChristoPhraser et al's work, @coreypeak's model examining the impact of disease dynamics on the relative benefits of symptom monitoring v quarantine seems relevant for thinking through #nCoV2019 containment strategies. https://t.co/sjMVI0QK5r pic.twitter.com/zGWvSZ7HFw— CarolineOB (@Caroline_OF_B) January 24, 2020
Jim Bianco's Latest Update
Latest REPORTED global (non-China) infections.— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) February 7, 2020
The 61 infected on the cruise ship in Japan is NOT in this data.
Japan will not add arguing the countries should add their nationals to their country totals (several are US citizens). This will not.
WHO needs to do this https://t.co/Dcyq0btT0w pic.twitter.com/rpbQVWkNs8
Africa Cases Coming
To date no infections on the continent of Africa have been reported. Why?— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) February 7, 2020
Only today, February 7, did anyone on the continent actually get a testing kits to look for infected people.
What will this number be in two weeks? https://t.co/4yoWJmNRlc
61 Cases on Cruise Ship
Diamond princess cruise ship of Yokohama update.— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) February 7, 2020
3,711 on the ship quarantined, 273 tested, 61 now confirmed infected. About 3,400 awaiting a resolution. https://t.co/naEEuFGYy7
Stop the Ridiculous Flu Comparisons
People are still comparing this outbreak with the flu.
60 million people are locked up in China, in their homes. One person is allowed out every three days.
For comparison purposes, the state of california has about 40 million people. Illinois has 13 million. Michigan has 10 million.
So imagine everyone in CA, IL, and MI being locked in their houses, unable to leave other than to buy groceries every three days.
And if you think the reported death count is accurate given 60 million lockups with infections growing by 50,000 per day, you need to think again.
Panic in China
Yesterday, I commented China in State of Panic as Coronavirus Death Toll Rises
Locked In, Literally
Also imagine taking temperatures with a thermometer and spreading the virus by mouth to everyone, in a foolish attempt to determine who doesn't have it. https://t.co/j0e2DXL2vr— Mike "Mish" Shedlock (@MishGEA) February 6, 2020
China is forcing people into quarantine camps, restricting movement, locking people in their homes (literally), demanding daily temperatures updates from everyone, and now bitching about about travel restrictions of other countries.
Unfortunately, things look to get worse for at least a few more weeks.