Over 1 In 1000 People Living In NY/NJ Die From COVID-19

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

New Jersey joined New York today in the dubious distinction of coronavirus deaths rates of over 1 in 1,000 people.

As states start opening up here are some charts to consider.

New Covid-19 Deaths US States 

The above chart is not population adjusted. 

I made the chart as a spot check to see if new deaths were generally in line with the lead chart. 

There are some new states, notably Texas and Florida, but they are not in the front of the pack, and the day-to-day totals are very noisy.

Changes in Deaths Per Million by Country

Three Obvious Standouts

  1. Singapore

  2. South Korea

  3. Japan

What Do They Have in Common?

  1. Aggressive Early Testing

  2. Cooperative Society on Social Distancing Rules

  3. Contract Tracing

The deniers say social distancing does not work and cannot work especially in in high population density cities like New York City and Chicago. 

Let's test that thesis with a look population densities.

Population Densities 

Population Densities per Square Kilometer - Countries

  • Singapore: 8,337

  • South Korea: 515

  • Japan: 334

  • UK: 267

  • Italy: 206

  • China 144

  • Spain: 98

  • United States: 33

  • Sweden: 22

Population Densities per Square Kilometer - US Cities

  • New York City: 10,431

  • San Francisco: 6,659

  • Boston: 5.143

  • Chicago: 4,582

  • Philadelphia: 4,337

  • Miami: 4,324

Population Densities of Cities Japan

  • Tokyo, Japan: 6,158

  • Yokohama, Japan: 8,534 

  • Osaka, Japan: 5,200

Population Density of South Korea

South Korea is one of the planet’s most densely populated countries with a density of 503 people per square kilometer, or 1,302 people per square mile. Nearly 70% of South Korea's land area is mostly uninhabitable due to it being mountainous and the population is established in lowland areas, contributing to a density that is higher than average. In 1975, an estimate was made that South Korea's population density in its cities, each containing at least 50,000 people, was nearly 4,000 on average. As a result of the continued following of the practice to migrate to urban areas, the figure was much higher in the 1980s.

Seoul's population density was estimated around 17,000 average persons in 1988, an increase of over 3000 when compared with 1980's population density of nearly 14,000 people every square kilometer. The current density of Seoul is almost twice that of New York City. The density of Busan, the second largest city in the country, was just over 8,500 persons for every square kilometer in 1988, while this figure stood at a little over 7,000 people back in 1980.

Population Density of Singapore

With a population of around 5.7 million people in 2019 and a land area of approximately 720 square kilometers, Singapore was the second most densely populated country in the world, after Monaco

High Population Density Does Not Necessitate High Covid-19 Deaths

That is the bottom line.

Of course, there is a tradeoff. 

Singapore , South Korea, and Japan all did three things that  the US did not do and many in the US still do not want to do.

  1. Aggressive Early Testing

  2. Cooperative Society on Social Distancing Rules

  3. Contact Tracing

1: The US did not do aggressive early testing and it's too late for that now. 

2: The US was late in social distancing and some want to fight it

3: The US did not do contact tracing and may still view that as violation of personal privacy.

Too Late for Early Testing, But Not Overall Testing 

Most do want aggressive testing, but despite Trump's claims, the US is not where we need to be. 

However, the number of tests is finally ramping up. 

Coupled with spotty social distancing (compared to other countries) Is that enough? 

I don't know, but we are about to find out.

Want To Be More Like Sweden?

For further discussion, please see Want To Be More Like Sweden? What If We Already Are?

Was it Worth It?

I will not address that question because I will not change anyone's mind.

Importantly, it's impossible to know what would have happened if the US had not undergone these lockdowns.

But we do know that deaths are way underreported and the US is only as good as it is because of the lockdowns.

Was it worth it? The debate is on.